The 2015 election in Nigeria was
remarkable for many reasons, but what makes it unique is the fact that the
ultimate victor was a former dictator that had come to power as a result of a
military coup. It is not often that one hears of an authoritarian strongman
turning democrat. How did this happen? Part of the answer lies with the
tremendous changes that Nigeria has experienced in the last two decades. Ethnic
conflict, terrorism, massive economic growth, and a deeply-corrupt political
culture have all contributed to the current political/social situation in
Nigeria. Recently, Nigeria overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest economy. A
country with vast oil wealth and one of the youngest populations on the planet,
Nigeria is also a country with extreme poverty, terrorism, and sectarian
conflict (religious war).
As the 2015 election approached, the two
main candidates, incumbent President Goodluck Johnathan and opposition
candidate Muhammadu Buhari, outlined two visions for the country that stood in
stark contrast to one another. President Goodluck Johnathan was seen as weak
and ineffective in the war against terrorist organization Boko Haram,
especially after the world’s attention was drawn to the issue through the
“#BringBackOurGirls” social media campaign, which focused attention upon Boko
Haram for having kidnapped some 300 young girls from their village in the
northeast of the country where BH is primarily based. By the end of 2014, close
to one million people had been displaced by the violence in the country, and as
the election approached observers worried that a “mismanaged election could
trigger post-election violence that w[ould] exacerbate” these problems (Adibe,
2015).
The two main political parties in the
Nigerian election were the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which is dominant
in the largely-Christian South, and the All Progressives Congress (APC), which
is the dominant party in the largely-Muslim North. The 2015 election was the fifth conducted in
Nigeria since the peaceful transfer of power from military to civilian
authorities in 1999, and the first in which the opposition candidate (ACN) had
a serious chance of winning. Do to the ethnically-bifurcated nature of the country,
Nigeria has some features of its electoral system which are designed to
moderate religious extremism in political candidates. Most notably, a candidate
must receive at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states in
order to win the election in a single round. If no candidate clears this
threshold, then a run-off election must take place within a week (BBC, 2015).In
response to this rule, most Christian candidates select a Muslim as their
running mate and vice versa. This was exactly the case in this election.
Opposition candidate Gen. Muhammadu Buhari
is quite a remarkable military/political figure in Nigerian society. Buhari has
famously participated in multiple military-led coup d’états, including one that
installed him as head of state in 1983. Buhari ruled this military dictatorship
until 1985, when he himself was overthrown by another general! After power was
transferred to civilians in 1999, Buhari ran in every single presidential
election since 2003.
Previous elections in Nigeria have been “full
of irregularities (including underage voting, ballots that did not include all
the names of the candidates, errors in voter registration, lack of secrecy of
voting, and inadequate polling stations), in addition to improper conduct such
as stealing ballot boxes, intimidation, and vote buying” (Library of Congress,
2015). With this in mind, Nigeria has become notorious as a bastion of criminal
political activities. In order to combat corruption Nigeria has created an
independent election commission (INEC). In tandem with the monitoring and
conduction of elections, the use of biometric identification cards have also
been implemented for the first time.
Muhammadu Buhari was declared the winner
by the INEC, having received 15,424,921 votes—and having received at least 25%
of votes in 2/3rds of states—and his opponent, incumbent president Goodluck
Johnathan, having received 12,853,162 votes. Buhari swept the northern
territories, and made inroads into the South, including the states of Kogi and
Benue (See Figure 1). Many analysts have
attributed Buhari’s phenomenal success to the fact that Goodluck Johnathan was
perceived as being weak in his response to Boko Haram. Buhari, by contrast, was
seen as a “man of action” that would quickly take on BH were he to be elected.
In American politics, there is a famous
quote from then-adviser to President Clinton, James Carville, who said that
when it comes to which issue is most important in an election “it’s the
economy, stupid”. However, this was not the case in the 2015 Nigerian election.
Security/defense issues were clearly the most important issues at play.
Nigerian Christians clearly overrode their ethno-religious concerns in order to
vote for Mr. Buhari. Buhari has made comments in the past, which indicate
strong support for the implementation of Sharia Law, which is anathema to
Christian and/or secular voters. It was
Buhari’s experience as a military officer which was featured most prominently
in his campaign. In fact, he appeared on the ballot with military title as
“Gen. Muhammadu Buhari”.
The fear that the elections could result
in violence, or even a refusal to concede were the incumbent to lose were very
real. Never before in Nigeria had the incumbent president lost an election and
then freely transferred power to the winner. The peaceful transfer of power is
one of the hallmarks of a democracy, making this election a critical one for
Nigeria’s fledgling regime. Luckily, there was very little violence, and
President Goodluck conceded the election to Muhammadu Buhari. President Johnathan even called Mr. Buhari to
congratulate his opponent directly. While people in many liberal democracies
see this is as the norm, for Nigerians this was the first time it has ever
happened, it’s a big deal.
President-elect Buhari was gracious in his
victory, even though he had been extremely critical during the campaign. He
pledged to immediately undertake operations against Boko Haram, including
operations to find the hundreds of girls that have been kidnapped by BH in the
north and northeastern areas of the country. If Mr. Buhari is successful
against Boko Haram it will show that he is able to follow through on his
election promises, and it will be another positive signal that Nigerian
politicians are respecting the will of the voters.
Many political scientists have not
considered Nigeria to be a democracy, because prior to the 2015 election there
had never been a peaceful transition of power (much like the PRI in Mexico for
most of the 20th century). Since independence, Nigeria has gone
through many trials and tribulations. Like most post-colonial societies, they
have struggled with issues of governance and corruption, military coup d’états,
and issues of resource dependence. With more than 180 million people, Nigeria
is one of the most populous nations on the planet. The trend toward a
successful liberal democracy is not just good news for Nigeria, but can be
touted as an example to follow for nations that are currently undergoing many
of the same struggles that face Nigeria.
If a country like Nigeria, which is
divided ethnically and religiously, can have contentious, but fair elections,
and all sides can accept the results as the will of the people, then its
prospects for the future are bright indeed. With massive amounts of oil, and
the world’s third-largest movie industry (just behind India, but expected to
surpass them), Nigeria has tremendous potential. As most of the world’s
population is aging, Nigeria’s is much more youthful than the world average. If
Muhammadu Buhari can make good on his campaign promises of continued economic
prosperity, a crackdown on Boko Haram, and a war on corruption, then he will be
likely to be rewarded at the ballot box. The danger is that Buhari favors his
ethnic/religious base over the needs of the country as a whole, and if he
pursues the implementation of Sharia Law there is sure to be a backlash by the
Christian South.
To recap, just how could a former military
dictator be democratically elected to lead a country? Ironically, it was
precisely because of Buhari’s military experience, including training at the
United States War College, and his perceived incorruptibility that allowed for
his election. The deteriorating security situation in the North, and the
attention focused upon Nigeria through the actions of Boko Haram have overruled
any positive feelings Nigerian voters may have had toward Goodluck Jonathan for
the growing economy.
It remains to be seen if Mr. Buhari will
be able to root out corruption and destroy the terrorist group Boko Haram, all
while moderating the Islamic impulses toward Sharia Law within his own
electoral base. If he is able to do so, then he will be remembered by the
history books, but if he does not, then it could lead to increasing violence in
a country which has already experienced so much. Only time will tell, but the
very fact that Nigeria conducted fair elections in which the loser conceded is
a major milestone for Nigeria’s developing democracy.
Bibliography:
Adibe,
Jideofor. THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
IN NIGERIA: THE ISSUES AND CHALLENGES. Africa Growth Initiative. Brookings
Institution. 2015.
BBC
News. How Nigeria's
presidential election works. March 27, 2015. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31111572
Library
of Congress. Nigeria: Election Laws.
2015. http://www.loc.gov/law/help/nigeria-election-law/index.php
No comments:
Post a Comment